TEHRAN – Iran currently holds about 93 million barrels of crude oil and gas condensate stored on vessels in the Persian Gulf, off Singapore and near China ready to be injected into the market if the nuclear deal is revived, Bloomberg reported on Monday citing ship-tracking firm Kpler.

According to the report, Vortexa Ltd. estimates the reserves at 60 to 70 million barrels, saying that there are also some smaller volumes in onshore storage facilities.

“Iran has built up a sizable flotilla of cargoes that could hit the market fairly soon,” said John Driscoll, chief strategist at JTD Energy Services Pte.

Iran’s comeback to the global crude market would be very significant considering the fact that the European Union is implementing tighter sanctions on Russian crude flows as of December and the Biden administration’s mammoth sale from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will end in October.

Since former President Trump stopped granting waivers to import Iranian oil following American sanctions, Iran’s daily shipments have held at about one million barrels, according to Emma Li, an analyst at Vortexa.

The current volume of crude and condensate in onshore storages within Iran is estimated at about 48 million barrels, Kpler data showed, adding that the producer could be holding even more oil in some land storages around China.

Longer term after any deal is struck and the offshore cache is drained, Iran would seek to rebuild production and step-up overseas sales.

While Iran may aim to fill the void left by Russia in Europe, namely in Spain, Italy, Greece and even Turkey, Tehran would also attempt to reclaim share in the prized Asian market, even if it takes a sweetening of terms.

In 2017 and 2018, Europe consumed an average of 748,000 barrels and 528,000 barrels a day of Iranian oil, respectively, while Asia took 1.2 million and close to 1 million barrels a day, Kpler data showed.

EF/MA